How have Paraguay shocked Germany and got to the Round of 16

What actually happened?

Paraguay have shocked former winners Germany in the World Cup up last night, they drew 1-1 in normal time but Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties. This was the first time Germany had ever lost a penalty shootout in the World Cup. The South American side took the lead as Julio Enciso headed home from a recycled corner. Germany equalised via Arsenal star Kai Havertz and Germany also had an extra time goal chalked off. It was a good defensive performance, with class in finishing from Paraguay, but for Germany, it was a woeful result that puts manager Julian Nagelsmann under serious pressure.

The Paraguayan excellence

Paraguay played in a defensive in a disciplined, rigid, 4-5-1 formation and set out to absorb the German attack and hit them on the counter attack. They executed this to perfection and only let in 1 German goal and scored 1 themselves. Paraguay were more than happy to let Germany have the ball and Germany hogged the ball with 75% possession, but it's not about possession, it's about what you do with it. Their goalkeeper, Orlando Gill, was unbelievable in their performance and made 5 key saves and caught 16 German crosses, not to mention his penalty heroics. Their centre back pairing of Gustavo Gómez and José Canale were paramount in absorbing the constant pressure from Germany and won over 80% of their ariel duels in the box and won 79% of their 33 attempted tackles. Going forward, they only had 4 shots, half of which being on target, which is minuscule compared to Germany's 18 shots and 6 being on target. This means they had conversion rate of 25% and that is good anywhere and means you can take the best of your chances. Their midfield had the toughest job of the whole game, keeping the midfield of Germany, with Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz quiet and believe it or not, they absolutely nailed it. Andrés Cubas was key in breaking up play and got 6 tackles and 4 interceptions throughout the 120 minutes, that averages a turnover just for him every 12 minutes, then there was Miguel Almirón, who was more of a creative outlet. His service was limited, which is understandable as he was playing for a team with less than 30% possession. However, he provided a golden moment when he crossed the ball in for Julio Enciso to head in.

The German Wastefulness

Germany's main issue was the inability to break down the compact defense of Paraguay. They had a grand total of 18 shots with a third being on target and somehow only got the 1 goal. They had 75% of the ball and didn't take their plethora of chances. However, you can't just blame it on their wastefulness, the Paraguay goalkeeper made some wondrous saves and on another day they probably would have scored a good few more. In the game they scored 1 out of 18 shots, that means a conversion rate of 5.5% which is not good enough for a side with so many international honours and some elite players. They also had many lapses in concentration. like with the Paraguay goal, when the German defense just switched off allowing Paraguay to get forward and score. Their style of play was also very predictable and too slow. This allowed the Paraguay defence to pressure them and force an error. Additionally, they had an over reliance on crosses into the box and nearly all of them were smothered by the Paraguayan defence. On penalties, Germany missed 3 and Kai Havertz, with a 96% penalty success rate missed alongside Nick Woltemade and Jonathan Tah. It was a combination of all these things that aided Paraguay to the Round of 16.

Who will Paraguay get in the Round of 16?

In the Round of 16, Paraguay's task gets no easier as they face 2018 winners France. With star talent like Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, they will be under the cosh with the lethal attack comes with a rock solid defensive line that is hard to break down. Paraguay will be hoping to hold off France and try and hit them on the break or with a set piece. They will definitely take a draw and will happily go to penalties.

Image: Biser Todorov, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

Final Words

Paraguay's win over Germany was hard fought and tactically perfect, they held off the German attack and used their lapses in concentration to get goals. For Germany it was a wasteful performance and their perfect World Cup penalty shootout record ended. It's France now for Paraguay and it will be interesting to see how they do and if they can do the same to France as they did to Germany.